Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
