A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
